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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.